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Yakima Study Part 3



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A STATISTICAL SUMMARY OF REPORTS FROM THE TOPPENISH UFO STUDY

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By
David W. Akers, P.E.
P.O. Box 11517
Seattle, WA 98110-5517 USA
Email: 70544.1653@compuserve.com
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Revised December 5, 1995 for Distribution on
Electronic Networks.

Copyright 1995, David W. Akers
All Rights Reserved.

Reproduction or commercial use of this document or any of its
photographs or illustrations without permission of the author is
expressly prohibited. This document may however be redistributed
over electronic networks and to researchers as long as it is
forwarded in its whole, without modifications and without charge.

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INTRODUCTION



This report is intended as an update of earlier reports covering the efforts being made to discover the source of UFO activity on the Yakima Indian Reservation, near Toppenish, Washington. It is devoted to a brief description of the type and format of data being collected for statistical analysis and to reporting progress being made towards the discovery of patterns of behavior for the manifestation in the study area (1).

A summary of selected data, obtained over the four year period of the study, is included at the end of the report.


DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA BASE



The value of a system for encoding and storing reports of UFO observations in a standardized form, which permits high- volume, computer-aided study, was recognized early by a number of investigators in the field. Unfortunately, there was little communication between the groups involved in establishing data files and, consequently, no standardization of data formats. This lack of standardization, along with substantial disagreement over just what information should be included in such a file, has made the exchange of information among the various investigators and groups extremely difficult.

Faced with the above lack of standardization and detailed information regarding the formats being used by others, this investigator set-out to develop still another database format in 1971. The file, called APDF, was originally intended to catalog the pertinent details of worldwide UFO sighting reports on a systematic basis. The format used for encoding data from the Toppenish study area is a modified version of the original format and, while it is not the last word in computer databases, provides a means of analyzing the patterns of many parameters of sighting reports, over a number of years and in a consistent time and location reference frame. Table I. gives the parameters included in APDF encoded reports from the study area.

(1)Earlier reports, dated November 2, 1972 and April 8, 1974,
provide additional background on the work being conducted
in the study area.


TABLE I. PARAMETERS INCLUDED IN THE APDF DATA FORMAT



Table I.

Item
Parameter
Remarks
01
Observation Date and Serial Number
Date at Greenwich Mean
02
Observation Time
Time at Greewich Mean
(Universal Time)
03
Observation Coordinates
Latitude and Longitude to nearest tenth of a minute, when location is off of Yakima Reservation grid. Grid coordinates to the nearest mile, when known and within the Reservation study area.
04
Population Density
.
05
Topography
.
06
Temperature
.
07
Weather Conditions
Cloud cover, precipitation, etc.
08
Source of Report
Press, police, investigator, etc.
09
Strangeness Index
Subjective scale of 1 to 5
10
Probability Index
Subjective scale of 1 to 5.
11
Observation Class
Nocturnal light, Radar-Visual, Close encounter, daylight object, etc.
12
Length Of Observation
.
12
Shape of object
.
14
Color of Object
.
15
Luminescence
.
16
Kinetics
.
17
How First Observed
.
18
How Last Observed
.
19
Observer Reaction
.
20
Additional Observations
Smoke, odor, sound, photographs, etc. (up to four of 27 choices, plus a flag indicating other observations of interest in the source report, which were not encoded.)



Each report, with all of the parameters given in Table I. encoded, occupies one standard IBM Hollerith card. Rapid and consistent coding of reports is accomplished with a set of tables which closely define the characteristics of each parameter of the source report and convert that information into numerical data. The resulting punched card contains most of the information in the source report, but now in a form which can be analyzed by the computer.

All of the reports encoded using the above system are coarsely filtered, as described in earlier papers, to eliminate observations which have too little information content to be usable or those which include details strongly suggesting a known cause. In addition, reports which do not include a date are eliminated from the computer file, since such information is required by the operating program to unambiguously identify the report.

It should be noted that the APDF format allows the deletion of any unknown parameters, with the exception of the year, month, day and, at least, the approximate location of the observation. Some of the reports gathered during the last four year were deleted from the computer file as a result of the above constraints. In some cases, the deleted reports were of reasonably good quality, lacking only a date.

SUMMARY OF SELECTED DATA GATHERED SINCE 1972



The total number of reports, encoded since the study began in 1972, stands at 55. These reports breakdown into tho following classifications:

Total Reports

Item
Phenomenon
Percentage
1
Nocturnal Lights
43 (78.1%)
2
Daylight Objects
3 (5.5%)
3
Close Encounters (CE-1) 6 (10.9%) (
43 (78.1%)
4
Others
(5.5%)


Figure I. is a plot of the number of reports received over the four year study period versus the month Or the year. Figure II. graphs the number of reports versus the hour of the day, over the four year period.

Further analysis of these data indicates, among other things, that there were nine photographs made, four cases involving the scouting of a terrestrial vehicle, at least one case involving electromagnetic effects, one case of a "beeping" sound and one case in which animals were affected.


CONCLUSION


It seems certain that, as more cases are added to the data base and further analysis of the information is made, some patterns of behavior will become apparent. The ultimate goal, of course, is to be able to forecast periods of activity and their most probable locations. With such information, it should be possible to deploy an investigator and instruments in the field, with the greater probability that useful measurements will be obtained.

Because of the relatively small number of reports available, caution should be used in drawing conclusions from the data at this time. A pattern which does seem to emerge from the information available at the present time, is the relationship between the number of sightings and the hour of the day (Figure II.). It would appear that the time of highest probability for a sighting in the study area is in the zone between 7 pm and 12 midnight, local standard time. The peak in reports, centered about the month of July, in the plot of Figure I., might be reasonably expected, since more observers are in the field during this period. The February-March-April peak, found in Figure I., lacks a satisfactory explanation at the present time.

At the time of this writing, activity in the study area is very low. Reports reached a peak towards the end of May, 1975 and abruptly dropped to only two reports in the following 5 month period. Such behavior has been observed before and is not considered to be unusual.


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS


The collection of the data for study in the Toppenish project would be impossible without the patience and hard work of those people who have forwarded reports to this investigator. Without the assistance of Bill Vogel, the ladies in the fire lookouts, the Yakima Reservation Tribal Council and many other individuals, this on-going study would be impossible. Many thanks for their help.

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C U F O N
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